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Hi everyone,
Every day seems to bring a new downturn in our financial markets, so let’s get right into it. The roller coaster of tariffs and the stock market is dizzying. However, what we’re seeing in the trenches of SF real estate seems to paint a different picture.
Here's a real time picture of activity this week….
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44 Turquoise on the market for five days received a pre-emptive offer
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45 Grattan received a pre-emptive offer barely two days on the market
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4221 26th received twelve offers going well over 20% of asking price
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268 Ripley received five offers also going well over 20% of asking price
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2989 Lake St received multiple offers over the asking price
A pre-emptive offer is one that chooses not to wait for an offer date instead offering a number/terms that’s hard to turn down by an owner. This doesn’t mean that every property on the market is experiencing the same, and our market can certainly change in an instant. What this activity does show is that quality homes are moving swiftly, even as the headlines tell us the sky is falling.
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This is the biggest policy mistake in 95 years. The good news? I think the FED has to lower Interest rates as a result of this global shock. Yes there will be higher inflation. If you are a long term investor, these tariffs are not going to be forever. There will be brighter days to be sure. (Jeremy Siegel, Wharton)
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The fastest growing city in the country over nearly every recent period—including the last 15 years — is Houston. It's no surprise that a Sunbelt city is the fastest growing, but the growth of Texas cities — Houston and Dallas in particular — has far outpaced even other Sunbelt cities like Phoenix and Atlanta. (Aziz Sunderji, Home Economics)
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If you thought rent-flation was high in the US, look to UK; rents are rising in areas over 8% YOY. In London and the Northeast it's over 9%. (BLOOMBERG)
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We are now watching more tariff news....
It’s difficult to make any sense of the volatility of the tariff situation that all of our prediction tools (insert facetiousness) are thrown out the window.
The jobs report released on April 4 showed new hires, exceeding expectations. Those are March figures - what will the numbers show for April?
Apparently, Larry Fink of Blackrock + 69% of CEO’s, believe that we’re very close to a recession. Will the Fed be forced to lower interest rates? As you can see in the sales mentioned above, our market is showing remarkable strength - will the lower rates further heat up the competition? We shall see.
If you’re buying a home in this market, consider moving your investment funds into cash to move quickly for the right home. Stay connected with your lender to watch the interest rates. Stay closer to your realtor to watch for off market and/or Compass Private Exclusive listings.
If you’re selling a home in this market, be clear of your end goals. Most of San Francisco has an inventory shortage, depending on what you’re selling, chances of a quick sale are high. Are you in a position to manage a fast close? Do you know where you’re going? There are multiple ways of negotiating what you need - we do every day for our clients - so find an agent who aligns with your big picture goals.
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Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain erros and subject to revision. Last period fibures are prliminary estimates based on data available in early January. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported activity.
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More charts, more charts, more charts 
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DOGFEST is almost here!
We're all about dogs and kids, and this year, we're the official sponsor of Dogfest 2025! This event benefits McKinley Elementary, which is near and dear to our hearts. It’s going to be a beautiful day, so please join us for the dog show, few pics in the photo booth, kids craft and raffle of a new Trek e-bike mckinleyschool.org/dogfest/
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“Usually turnarounds, either downturns or recoveries, are already on the way before most people recognize it, and they go much faster than most people expect. In my observation of San Francisco, I think that’s happening right now. It’s well underway, and it’s moving at lightning speed.” (Greg Flynn, CEO Flynn Group)
In 2023, our CEO, Robert Reffkin was betting on San Francisco's recovery. We are cautiously optimistic - while we are far from a pre-pandemic environment, the enthusiasm is certainly out there.
The traditional Easter egg hunt along with hunky Jesus contest is on this Sunday at Dolores Park. Are you going? Get there early, you know what that park is like.
Did you hear about Grumpy’s Pub re-opening? I was there for it on Wednesday night - they had the block closed off, and there must’ve been at least a hundred people in the street. Music, food, drinks…it was awesome. If you haven't been,, the pub is tucked away on Vallejo street in the Embarcadero neighborhood. Definitely check them out.
Have yourself a great Easter weekend!
Until next time,
Par and Chip
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