Forget the pumpkin spice.
September’s best brew is a long-overdue look at zoning laws, a few big steps forward in downtown development, and a buyer mindset that’s more open than it’s been all year. Q4 might not be a full reset— but we’re seeing just enough motion in the market to make it worth watching. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just peeking over the fence, here’s what to keep your eye on.
Major Zoning Proposal Could Redraw the Map
Mayor Lurie’s family housing initiative is gaining traction—and with it, the potential to rezone large portions of the city for multi-unit housing. This would be one of the biggest policy moves in decades.
- Up to 36,000 new homes could be made feasible (Axios SF)
- Focus on single-family zoned neighborhoods like Sunset, Richmond, and Marina
- Not law yet—but momentum is building
The implications? Huge. This may be your early signal to look west—literally.
Renters Are Paying the Price of Demand
In August, median rents for one-bedroom apartments surged by 11.5% YoY, hitting ~$3,040 — that’s the highest level since April 2020. Vacancy’s low (~3.8%), which means competition is back. The city now leads the U.S. in YoY rental increases (SF Chronicle).
Key drivers:
- AI firms setting up shop in SoMa and Mission Bay
- Tech talent returning to in-person offices
- Still-limited inventory across every class of housing
It’s simple economics—and it’s pushing many renters toward ownership or longer leases. If you’ve been on the fence, fall could be your best move.
Oceanwide Center Might Wake from Its Slumber
That massive downtown project that’s been stalled? There’s investor interest again. Legal and financing hurdles remain, but with the foundation / entitlements in place, it’s one of the clearest signs we’ve had of a possible big downtown renewal (SF Chronicle).
Office Buildings Might Be Your Secret Source
The potential to convert empty or under-used office space into housing could add ~61,000 units—if policies support conversions (Axios). That spells opportunity. If you’re a buyer or investor, there may be value in tracking those conversion-eligible areas.
Neighborhood Squeeze: Mission Bay & SoMa Are Burning Up
Mission Bay rents are up ~21.7% YoY — the biggest jump in the city. SoMa, Hayes Valley, and Civic Center also saw double-digit rent growth (~10–13%). If you’re looking for value, you may have to look a little further away—or act fast in these zones (SFGATE).
Downtown’s Reinvention: It’s Getting Real
A 58-story tower in SoMa? Not just an idea. Developers behind the long-stalled 88 Bluxome project are back, planning major residential builds downtown (SF Chronicle).
Plus, the city has ramped up incentives for converting office space into housing, with more public-private partnerships expected this fall.
Bottom line: if you thought downtown was dead, it might be the best value play in town.
“Back to Normal”? Kind of.
According to recent articles, housing costs in San Francisco — when adjusted for income and current mortgage rates — are hovering around the same affordability levels we saw in July 2018. That means we’ve technically returned to “normal.” But here’s the catch: “normal” in SF was never exactly easy for buyers. It’s just… less chaotic than it was during the post-pandemic frenzy.
What’s notable is this subtle shift in psychology — both buyers and sellers are recalibrating. Buyers are less frantic, but more focused. Sellers are realizing that serious offers come from pricing with precision, not ego.
In short: predictability is back on the table. And in a city known for volatility, that’s its own kind of gold.
Your Takeaway This Month
- Buyers: Move with intention. If you see something you like in a family-zoned neighborhood or a new apartment complex, it may not last. Waiting for a massive discount might mean missing out.
- Sellers: This is your moment — less competition, solid demand, pricing power returning. A well-staged, well-priced home will attract serious buyers willing to act.
- Renters: Brace for upward pressure, especially in areas near big tech employers. If you're happy where you are, renewing might be prudent. If you suspect your move is coming, start looking now.
- Watch Policy Closely: Family Zoning, permit reforms, and transit-adjacent housing bills (like SB79) are the “under-the-radar” levers that will change which neighborhoods pop in value.
Quietly Closed. Thoughtfully Chosen.
We’re proud to have helped two sets of buyers plant roots in two very different (but equally dreamy) corners of San Francisco this month in single-family homes:
One, a classic Noe Valley stunner with all the charm.
The other, a peaceful hilltop escape with postcard views.
Helping people find the right home - not just a home - is what we’re here for. Congratulations to our clients on these exciting next chapters!
This season’s not about the big drop or insane bargains. It’s about smart moves. Watching zoning, watching office conversions, watching where newer supply is slow to arrive. If you want to run your neighborhood’s data, see where the coming supply is, or map out your timing plan—just hit reply. We’re plugged in, and we’ve got your back.
— Chip & Par
