One region, 47 different realities.
The Bay Area right now is like a potluck - everyone brought something different, and no one coordinated.
Some cities brought bidding wars. Others brought stale condos.
Napa ≠ Fremont ≠ San Francisco ≠ Atherton.
Let’s dive into what’s actually going on.
Luxury’s Having a Moment Again
Sales over $5M are trending up across the Bay - from Marin to Silicon Valley. While mid-tier buyers eye rates, top-tier buyers are back to making moves. Cash is king, and lifestyle is leading the charge (Compass Oct 2025 Report).
Case in point: 752 Elizabeth marketed softly in March ‘24 and ‘25 for $8.995m and found no buyers. It just sold last month off market for $9.6m. Why? Because a family was ready to make moves and had the capital to do it.
Takeaway: Got a showstopper? Now’s the time to list it.
What’s Up? Sales (But With Asterisks)
Nationwide, headlines are calling it a cooldown. But San Francisco? It’s not playing along.
Yes, we’re seeing longer days on market and fewer frenzied bidding wars across some parts of the Bay—but within many neighborhoods, the competition is very much alive.
Sales are up year over year in the Bay Area, especially in key neighborhoods and the luxury tier. And while national reports talk about price reductions, here’s the reality: our buyers are still facing multiple offers and strong over-ask scenarios on anything priced and prepped right.
Case in point: A recent listing in Inner Sunset had seven offers within five days—four of them all-cash. The demand is real, but it’s selective. If the home is prepped well, presented seductively, and priced strategically, buyers are still swarming.
AI’s Effect Keeps Spreading
Want to predict where prices might spike next? Follow the engineers.
Homes near Silicon Valley’s AI corridor (think Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Cupertino) are still commanding top dollar.
Why?
Companies like Nvidia, OpenAI, and Anthropic are influencing not just salaries, but zip codes (Compass + Axios).
Proximity to campuses = premium pricing and faster offers.
As Patrick Carlisle, Compass Chief Market Analyst notes, some of the steepest price growth is coming from areas with AI-adjacent affluence.
Case in point: A 4BD in Los Altos Hills listed for $5.4M was on the market just 3 days before selling $250K over asking to an AI startup founder relocating from Boston. They cited proximity to “innovation centers” as the #1 reason.
If you’re shopping in or near these areas, bring your A-game (and maybe a data scientist).
Tiny Homes, Big Attention
Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) and micro homes are more than trends - their utility plays in tight zones. Counties like Sonoma, Contra Costa, and Marin are increasingly approving ADU permits, making them viable for multigenerational living or rental income.
Case in point: Across Marin, Sonoma, and the East Bay, more homeowners are converting backyard space into bonus value. Recent permit data shows ADU approvals climbing steadily, and resale data reflects the payoff — listings with a permitted ADU are attracting more offers and closing faster than comparable single‑unit properties. For buyers, it’s flexible living; for sellers, it’s built‑in upside.
Why it matters: This adds a modular option for both buyers (smaller footprint) and sellers (added value).
Commercial Zoning Eases Could Unlock More Multi-Unit Near Transit
California just passed SB 79, a law to legalize denser housing near major transit stops (BART, Caltrain, etc.), overriding local restrictions that blocked multi-story builds (Axios + SF Chronicle).
Why it matters: This will reframe what “premium” means in transit corridors & and open opportunities in places previously limited to single-family homes.
Case in point: In cities like Berkeley and Redwood City, we’re already seeing early interest from small developers and long-term investors who once dismissed certain lots as “just single-family.” With SB 79 in play, those same parcels now come with upside. Think duplexes, triplexes—or better yet, fourplexes—just a stone’s throw from BART.
Condos: The Sleeper Deal of Fall
Single-family homes are the belle of the (open house) ball, but condos are where opportunity lives.
Condo prices are lagging in San Francisco, San Jose, Oakland, and Walnut Creek.
Many are selling below asking or offering rare negotiating room.
We’re seeing some strong investor activity return to this segment as a result.
Case in point: In San Francisco and the East Bay, several late‑summer condo listings lingered on the market for 25–40 days—before quietly closing anywhere from 2–8 % below asking, often with closing‑cost credits or flexible contingencies. Meanwhile, new condo listings are down year‑over‑year, tightening supply and creating rare breathing room for buyers ready to negotiate.
Thinking of buying your first place or downsizing? This Fall could be your window.
This Month’s Takeaway
Sellers: A “hot market” is now hyper-local. Nail the pricing, staging, and timing or risk being the one home buyers use to justify lower offers on the next.
Buyers: You might finally have some room to breathe. But in the hottest pockets (hello, Los Altos), speed and strategy still rule.
Observers: You’ll need better sources than the headlines. We’ve got you.
Market headlines don’t know your zip code. Or your cul-de-sac. Or the perfectly remodeled kitchen you finally finished last spring.
That’s where we come in.
Curious about your county? We’ll give you the real story in 15 minutes.
Reply back to this email and book your check-in call with us.
— Chip & Par
